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Aim. The purpose of the study: the analysis of morbidity of workers of the ship-building and ship-repair enterprises of the city of Astrakhan taking into account a quantitative estimation of influence of determinants. Material and methods. Sociological survey, methods of nonparametric statistics and mathematical modeling. For a detailed assessment of the influence of risk factors on the health of workers in shipbuilding and ship repair enterprises, an analysis of risk factors was conducted. As a tool for assessing the effectiveness of a determinant on the health of shipbuilders using a predicative analysis and predictive model of a mathematical assessment of the development of medical, social and production determinants on the health of workers. Results and its discussion. According to the results of the study, the most significant production hazards were revealed, as well as the statistically significant effect of the duration of work in conditions of industrial hazards on the incidence of male workers in shipbuilding and ship repair enterprises in the city of Astrakhan.The results of the study testified to the high level of medical and social activity of workers in shipbuilding and ship repair enterprises in contact with industrial hazards and identified the reserves for its further growth in the framework of the continuous introduction of prevention programs. The revealed correlation between the frequency of registration of the pathology of shipbuilders and ship repairmen and their work experience has made it necessary to construct a predictive model with the identification of the determinants of morbidity. And the construction of a predictive model on the basis of actual data provided an opportunity to manage these determinants without further monitoring and forecasting. The conclusion. The reduction of the risk of occurrence of industrial hazards associated with industrial hazards in shipbuilding and ship repair workers is promoted by annual medical and preventive measures, timely diagnostics and qualitative medical examination, as well as improvement of working conditions for employees of the enterprise.

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